Authors

Erwin Erhardt¹;  ¹ University of Cincinnati, United States

Discussion

At present, Western Europe is suffering multiple political crises. In Germany, the government recently collapsed. The most significant reason for this event involved the disagreement among the coalition members over Germany’s deteriorating economy. It appears at this point, that Chancellor Olaf Scholz will call for a vote of confidence on January 15, 2025. Should he lose, he would be forced to call for elections which would be held in March.

France has also had economic problems. The French Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s proposed budget which was forced through the National Assembly on December 2, 2024 because he could not collect enough votes to provide for a majority. This has led to the likelihood that Marine Le Pen and her party members—the National Rally—will bring down the current French administration and kill the budget. Following the last election, Macron did his very best to marginalize and isolate the National Rally, after the party garnered about one-third of the seats in the National Assembly. Indeed, France is in very, very serious economic trouble, as its borrowing rate has now eclipsed that of Greece.

In the United Kingdom, the Conservative government under multiple prime ministers was unable to accomplish nothing. According the Liz Truss’s new book Ten Years to Save the West, she argued that the machinery of state had become so entrenched, that it was now difficult for a prime minister to effectively rule. Keir Starmer’s government has done no better, and in fact, as The Independent reported on Tuesday October 29th, 2024 that Starmer’s government had already suffered an “unprecedented” collapse in popularity for a new prime minister.


With all of this turmoil occurring in Western Europe, American elections in November provided the populist candidate—Donald Trump—with a landslide victory and a mandate for change. His predecessor, Joe Biden was on the same ‘political page” as Western European leaders. Indeed, in very recent years, these aforementioned leaders all promoted their visions of the progressive, liberal state. Anyone and everyone who stood in opposition to them was demonized. One term popularly flouted at those who opposed progressive-left-liberal policies on both sides of the Atlantic was that of “fascist.”


The “News of the World” on November 6th was that Donald Trump had won the U.S. election—becoming only the second president in US History to serve two non-consecutive terms in office. Western European leaders were in shock and dismay. One would suspect they should be—given the myriad of problems they were contending with in their own countries along with the derogatory comments they had made in the past about the President-Elect.


Enter Eastern Europe. This writer was well aware of the way in which the progressive EU leaders talked down to the Eastern Europe leaders—especially President Duda of Poland and Prime Minister Orban of Hungary. However, one Donald Trump has maintained a very good relationship with both of these European leaders.

The newspaper Le Monde published a headliner on November 7, 2024 entitled “Poland calls for Europe to wake up after Trump’s victory.” The following day, another article in Le Monde noted that Viktor Orban was about to host a European Political Community summit in Budapest, followed by a European Council meeting—of which Orban is currently president. These stories were no longer just marginal stories about illiberal East European countries. Indeed, it was now noted how both Duda and Orban had maintained a good relationship with Donald Trump.

Thus, what the author of this proposal is suggesting is that Western Europe is in trouble – along with the EU, and the with the change in power in the United States, that the Eastern European leaders will now come into ascendency in regard to influence and power.

Like the American media and the left Democratic Party in the U.S., Western European leaders have regularly, and often, deplored Donald Trump. They’ve also painted themselves into a bit of a box in doing so. Now as President-Elect, Trump’s economic and political policies may also threaten the unity of the European Union, as several key members of the alliance have suggested they might independently negotiate treaties with Donald Trump.

In the midst of all of this shock and dismay, Western European leaders are now realizing the importance of Poland’s Duda and Hungary’s Orban in the desire to communicate and work with President-Elect Donald Trump in the years ahead. Indeed, these marginalized and oft-threatened East European leaders are suddenly very important within Europe and the E.U. Whereas, the leaders in London, Brussels, Paris and Berlin felt the were very much in charge of Europe, they are all suddenly struggling to politically survive in their own countries, and maintain the composition and relevance of the European Union.

Thus, this paper will argue that the power base within Europe is gravitating toward the East. Duda and Orban will be needed by Western Europe, and in particular, the EU to talk and to negotiate with Donald Trump. It would certainly seem to reason that the current leadership in Western European capitals would be ill at ease in negotiating with a man they applied so many ‘illiberal’ labels to. This time, Western Europe is in trouble. It will likely take skill, sound diplomacy, and a common set of reference points from the Eastern European leaders to negotiate with the American President Elect. It is through Poland and Hungary that Western Europe and the EU may well see its way forward.