Peter Braga1; 1 University College London, School of Slavonic and East European Studies, UK
Discussion
Peter Braga will build on the theoretical foundations of Steven David’s omnibalancing theory and offer a refined approach to its practical application. Omnibalancing argues that foreign policy decisions are frequently shaped not by state-level interests but by the leadership or regime’s efforts to manage internal threats, particularly those jeopardising regime survival. While traditionally applied to Cold War and post-colonial contexts, my revisions expand its applicability to a broader array of regime types and contemporary political contexts.
This paper advances omnibalancing theory in three key ways. First, it introduces a revised set of omnibalancing enabling conditions. Second, it proposes a methodological approach for researchers to apply omnibalancing as an explaining-outcome process-tracing method. By focusing on distinct crises, this approach avoids the misapplication of omnibalancing to routine alignments and emphasises rigorous causal analysis, linking leadership survival strategies to external alignments.
The empirical contribution of this paper tests these revisions through case studies of post-Soviet regimes. These cases explore how autocratic leaders leverage external alliances to suppress internal challenges, distinguishing successful omnibalancing strategies and from unsuccessful or absent cases.
This study deepens our understanding of how nondemocratic regimes navigate regime survival under contemporary global pressures. By refining the theoretical and methodological tools available, it equips researchers with practical guidance for applying omnibalancing in diverse political contexts.
