Authors

Arnold Khachaturov¹;  ¹ École des hautes études en sciences sociales , France

Discussion

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 disrupted established methods of studying the country. Traditional sources of data became increasingly inaccessible due to the political risks, ethical limitations and intensification of the ‘secrecy regime’. Our research examines how experts have adapted to the information scarcity through innovative methodological solutions.

Specifically, we explore how emerging approaches have reshaped the field of expertise on Russia. One example of methodological innovation is the increased reliance on open-source intelligence (OSINT), social media scraping, and triangulation of data for estimating military losses and economic situation in Russia.

 Through a case study of war casualties counts we show how scholars, experts and journalists worked to develop new quantitative methodologies to work around the growing opacity of official data. The methodological innovations are accompanied by a deeper transformation of the field of expertise. New actors and collaborations emerge: media in exile, networks of independent experts, and other forms of institutions aimed at co-creation of alternative data collections.

Our research combines three complementary methodological approaches: controversy mapping techniques to trace how different interpretations of key public numbers emerge and compete in the expert discourse; a quantitative analysis of expert publications, analytical reports and media articles on Russia produced since February 2022; and in-depth interviews with Western analysts, Russian experts in exile, and data journalists, exploring how they navigate the challenges of producing reliable knowledge in conditions of increased uncertainty.

Our findings contribute to broader debates about researching semi-closed societies during conflict.

This research is part of a doctoral project examining how quantitative data shapes Western expertise on contemporary Russia. It builds on recent scholarship in the sociology of quantification, while offering new insights into how expert knowledge adapts to the challenges of navigating a 'data desert' during periods of heightened uncertainty.

Drawing on the author's own experience in data journalism and research on Russia as head of data department at Novaya Gazeta Europe and founder of Cedar (Center for Data and Research on Russia), we examine how the reliability of data is assessed and validated in the context of information warfare, and how experts navigate between competing claims to truth and objectivity.