Authors

Discussion

What is the interplay of trust in political institutions and protest engagement in democratising contexts, and how do citizens’ attitudes to strong leadership moderate this? Post-authoritarian regimes may fluctuate between democratisation and authoritarian backsliding and be defined by strong systems of patronage. Dissatisfaction with political process and performance may motivate mass anti-government protest, and yet also stimulate preference for strong leaders to clean up institutions and produce positive policy outcomes. Where elected governments are perceived as incapable or unwilling to resolve core issues, and engage in authoritarian practice, how does preference for strong leadership influence the effect of low institutional trust on protest?

Ukraine presents an important case to consider these questions: collective action and highly contested elections have shaped political processes, whereas low institutional trust prevailed (until the 2022 full-scale invasion). This paper engages with the literature on political trust, developing its interrelation with strong leadership preference with respect to protest. I conduct logistic regression analysis, using representative survey data from 2015, the year following Euromaidan (Kyiv International Institute of Sociology). Findings suggest that low institutional trust may motivate protest when individuals prefer strong leadership, and that the effect is particularly strong for younger citizens. Whereas the conventional view holds that strong-leadership preference inhibits democratisation, there may be some nuance to this if citizens nevertheless participate in elite-challenging moments. Understanding citizens’ preferences in hybrid contexts may be crucial for discerning sources of popular pressure for political change.