Authors

Heng Cui¹;  ¹ Shanghai University of Political Science and Law, China

Discussion

The Ukrainian crisis in 2022, the Israel-Hamas conflict in 2023, and the Iranian and Russian terrorist attacks starting in 2024 have shown that Eurasia is currently experiencing a build-up of security risks that have turned into a global security challenge for the countries of Eurasia. Unfortunately, there isn’t a well-established, institutionalized multilateral security system that is broadly representative across Eurasia to exchange security products and provide a platform for security dialogue. Despite being viewed as a security provider in Central Eurasia after the end of the Cold War, the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) is considered pessimistic by countries of Eurasia, after the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and CSTO’s inability to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis. Previously, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe(OSCE) had hoped to expand its influence to the central and eastern parts of the Eurasian continent before the weakening of Europe's diplomatic independence and the disregard of the OSCE by all the major powers during the Ukrainian crisis caused Eurasian countries to lose confidence in and interest in this regional security mechanism. After admitting Iran and Belarus, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), has become the regional international organization on the Eurasian continent covering the widest area and representing the largest population, with both the willingness to maintain the security of the Eurasian continent and the ability to cope with both traditional and non-traditional security risks. China and Russia, as the "twin engines" of the SCO, in particular, have converging security interests, and the newly joined member states of Iran and Belarus are fully compliant with the security interests of China and Russia. It is unlikely that the SCO will be able to serve as a security provider though. First, the SCO’s protection of small states under the “Sovereignty first" principle forbids it from interfering in their internal affairs. This has resulted in the SCO having little control over the riots occurred in Kazakhstan in January 2022. Secondly, conflicts between member states, such as those between China and India, India and Pakistan, limit the organization's ability to reach collective consensus. Therefore, we conclude that the SCO has a great chance to become a new provider of security in Eurasia, however, the organization's functioning will be less effective and will lag if the guiding principles are not modified in time.