Authors

George Hajipavli¹;  ¹ University of Oxford, UK

Discussion

Conventional wisdom amongst European policymakers considers the war in Ukraine as predominantly influenced by developments on the military battlefield, and in Ukraine, Russia, and neighbouring states. Through a case-study of the Eastern Mediterranean, this analysis shows how developments in the Eastern Mediterranean (or the lack thereof) have significantly undermined Ukraine’s position in the battlefield, while further highlighting the interconnected nature of European security amongst regions and types of security. Namely, the study shows how energy, economic, and military security are inextricably interlinked in Europe, and how the security regions of the Eastern Mediterranean (and the Red Sea), and the Baltic and Black Sea and Ukraine influence each other in security terms. The presentation begins by retracing the (re)constitution of the Eastern Mediterranean region, as of the early 2010s, which coincides with great power dynamics and US activism, and the pursuit of European energy security by the United States in the face of natural gas discoveries in the region, thus corroborating Barry Buzan’s expectations. It then shows how the Eastern Mediterranean, dubbed as a suitable alternative energy source to Russian fossil fuels, failed to be exploited by the European partners. The study then links this failure to energy insecurity in Europe, inclusive of the United Kingdom, following Russia’s full-scale invasion of 24 February 2022. This energy insecurity is then linked to the substantial adverse implications on European economic security, which influenced both those most dependent on Russian energy, but also those which successfully decoupled from Russian natural gas, such as the UK. This reality highlights the interconnectedness between home and frontier theatres of European security, along with the necessity of strategising. Such a failure to account for the implications of energy and economic insecurity has driven European states to overtly or covertly continue to purchase Russian fossil fuels, out of fear of the economic repercussions a sudden and complete decoupling would lead at present, which will further encourage the contender party vote. As a result, European states continue to significantly account for inflows that benefit the Russian war machine, thus undermining European (military) security. The analysis, then, turns to explicating how native developments in the Eastern Mediterranean have further undermined the war effort in Ukraine, by encouraging the dissemination of harmful narratives, dividing resources and encouraging arms proliferation, amongst others. To reconstruct the origins of the Eastern Mediterranean, the study considers documents, statements, and speeches by US and regional officials, against extant prescriptions in (regional) security theory. Through process-tracing, utilising qualitative and quantitative, micro and macro data, the study connects how various types and regions of sec