Authors

Stephen Crowley¹;  ¹ Oberlin College, United States

Discussion

This paper will explore the domestic challenges -- economic, social and political – that Russia faces from its war in Ukraine. While numerous scholars and observers have focused on each of these challenges separately, few have examined their interconnected nature.

The paper will investigate, for example, how economic difficulties translates to social hardship and, in turn, to protest potential.  

Russia’s economy is currently experiencing a substantial boost due to “military Keynesianism,” and the social impact of the war has been tempered so far through high levels of government spending on social welfare, However, such expenditures on both guns and butter are unsustainable in the long run, with the Kremlin facing what some analysts call an “impossible trilemma”: attempting to simultaneously increase war spending, maintain living standards, and preserve macroeconomic stability. An end to the war in Ukraine, should it come, would present its own challenges, as it is likely to prove difficult to cool down an overheated economy without succumbing to recession or worse.  Moreover, the February 2022 invasion was preceded by a decade of declining living standards.  

Despite the well-known challenges to studying Russia during wartime, there are several sources of analysis of the economy beyond official statistics. Regarding the social impact, survey research by the Levada Center, Russian Field and the Public Sociology Laboratory, among others, continues to provide valuable insight. Moreover Telegram channels (such as ZabastCom) and databases of protests, both local and broader in nature, prove beneficial as well. My own contribution lies in exploring signs of convergence between the economic, social and political.   

For some time now the Russian authorities have faced the challenge of preserving social and political stability while avoiding economic stagnation (or worse), a topic I have explored in detail (Putin’s Labor Dilemma: Russian Politics between Stability and Stagnation [Cornell University Press, 2021]). That challenge has only deepened due to war and sanctions. Increasing economic hardship, if not leading directly to social unrest, will greatly restrict the Kremlin’s ability to restore economic growth. Hence the Russia’s leadership faces a major impasse: the government can seek to maintain social stability, but only at the cost of economic growth. But the lack of economic growth can itself become a potential threat to social stability.