Authors

Discussion

This paper investigates the short-term and long-term implications of the Russia-Ukraine war on the prospects of the EU's renewable hydrogen development in the context of enhancing its energy security. The role of the ongoing war for the EU’s energy transition strategy from natural gas to hydrogen and renewable electricity will be analysed as well as challenges and opportunities for diversification and renewable energy development in the EU. The EU’s energy cooperation with Ukraine as well as the EU’s energy sanctions against Russia since the start of its full-scale invasion in 2022 will be also studied in terms of its impact on the regional and global energy security and stability. The main challenge that both the European Union and Ukraine are facing now is that the current war causes a severe destruction of infrastructure needed for energy transition and production of renewable hydrogen.

The study examines the changing role of Russia as a key energy supplier to the EU, with a focus on the increasing significance of Russian LNG shipments to the EU in the past two years. It will delve into the impact of the war on energy prices and supplies, alongside policy responses like the establishment of the EU Energy Platform since 2022. Additionally, it will explore the EU's efforts to diversify its energy sources and bolster resilience against external shocks. Emphasis will be placed on avoiding new dependencies within the REPowerEU Plan's pillars of diversification, energy efficiency, and renewable transition. The European Hydrogen Strategy 2020 will undergo critical evaluation in light of existing policy initiatives within the European Green Deal framework. Finally, the newly formed 3 Seas Hydrogen Council, comprising 13 EU Member States between the Baltic, Adriatic, and Black seas, will be analyzed from a geopolitical standpoint.

As a result, the study will provide a comprehensive analysis of the geopolitical implications of the EU’s energy cooperation with Ukraine since 2022 Russia’s invasion with a focus on the development and deployment of renewable energy sources, i.e. hydrogen production. Specifically, the plans for the Central European Hydrogen Corridor are contingent upon the establishment of a comprehensive legal and regulatory framework, as well as the evolving dynamics of the ongoing war. It is expected that the short-term implications of the Russian-Ukrainian war (2022-2024) expedite decarbonisation processes in the EU and its hydrogen economy development. However, in a long-term perspective, serious setbacks to energy transition process might emerge if the war is protracted for years and if the global export of Russian gas and oil will continue benefitting from high energy prices. The results of the study will contribute to the existing academic literature and the policy debate on the EU's energy security in the context of geopolitics of energy transition.