Authors

Discussion

The paper "Ukraine 2032: Scenarios a Decade After the Full-Scale Invasion" examines potential trajectories for Ukraine and the democratic world in the decade following Russia's escalated aggression in 2022. Ukraine's resilience has been critical not only for its survival but also for maintaining the balance of democratic governance and the rules-based international order.

This study presents a broad spectrum of potential future scenarios for Ukraine, ranging from the highly probable to the less likely, capturing the rapid evolution of a VUCA (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, and Ambiguous) world. Recognizing that Ukraine's future depends on a complex interplay of both external and internal factors, this analysis develops 10 scenarios based on geopolitical frameworks and 10 grounded in domestic developments. Key variables include the ideological orientation, geopolitical alignment, and stance on engagement into shaping global agenda of primary international actors, whose interactions will shape Ukraine-oriented policies. Critical internal factors for Ukraine encompass defense capacity, the scope of NATO partnership/membership, EU membership/integration progress, democratic resilience, political stability, institutional reforms, economic growth and investment climate, demographic trends, etc.

Given that previous policy-making has been insufficient to prevent Ukraine’s human and territorial losses, mass displacement, economic decline, and ongoing Russian aggression—both military and hybrid—amid multipolarization of the world, it is essential to develop policies that can transform Ukraine into a resilient stronghold of democracy at the frontier with authoritarian regimes.