Authors

Discussion

Paper will discusses how the Russian invasion of Ukraine has redefined European security, propelling Ukraine from a perceived periphery to a potential security core. It evaluates potential outcomes, focusing on the implications of Ukrainian victory or defeat for the broader European security landscape. The paper explores the broader implications of the war on the EU's strategic posture. The Union finds itself at a crossroads, grappling with the immediate need to support Ukraine while also contemplating the long-term ramifications of the conflict on its enlargement policies and neighborhood relations. A victory, defined not only by the retention of sovereignty but also by the restoration of its internationally recognized borders would set a precedent for the inviolability of national borders and deter future acts of aggression by revisionist states. Conversely, a Russian victory, if ever realized, could embolden Moscow to extend its coercive tactics beyond Ukraine, potentially destabilizing the Baltic states and testing NATO's resolve under Article 5. The West's response, focused on deterrence rather than proactive measures, left Ukraine exposed to further Russian aggression.