Authors

Discussion

The fraudulent Belarusian presidential election in the summer of 2020 was followed by unprecedented mass protests. This was not the first fraudulent election in Belarus, but for the first time in the country's history, the falsified election results, combined with other factors, sparked a massive reaction from hundreds of thousands of Belarusians. Despite enormous risks, Belarusians took to the streets in 2020, demanding change and forming the largest act of resistance the Belarusian authoritarian regime had ever witnessed. What drove previously politically passive Belarusians to join the protests?

Using Coleman’s (1990) macro-micro-macro model and Hedstrom and Swedberg’s (1998) development of it as a foundation, I argue that to explain the Belarusian protest as a macro socio-political phenomenon, it is essential to analyze individual-level mechanisms triggered in 2020 that spurred collective protest actions. Additionally, I apply Petersen’s (2001) framework of individual resistance and rebellion against ruthless regimes, which outlines the sequence of mechanisms employed as individuals shift from neutrality to opposition, join rebellious organizations, and sustain their involvement in the movement. Integrating Kuran’s (1995) concept of private preference disclosure, I propose a sequence of mechanisms that were activated in 2020, resulting in the massive street protests in Belarus. Furthermore, by linking these theoretical frameworks and developing a sequence specific to Belarusian protesters, I explore not only what initially prompted participation but also what sustained protester involvement over time, despite repression.

In the beginning of the presentation, I outline the theoretical framework and, based on it, demonstrate the logical sequence of individual involvement mechanisms in the protest movement. Then, drawing on qualitative interviews, I show how situational mechanisms such as resentment led to individual actions, including the disclosure of private preferences. Finally, I discuss how these individual actions aggregated into the large-scale collective protests in Belarus in 2020. The triggered individual mechanisms are linked to personal risk assessments and an analysis of the threshold dynamics in the 2020 Belarus protests.

Through a series of semi-structured narrative interviews, I explain how ordinary Belarusian men and women, in the face of substantial risks, took to the streets, creating the most significant instance of resistance against the Belarusian authoritarian regime. Additionally, I examine the mechanisms that sustained the protest movement over several months, providing a foundation for prolonged dissent.