Authors

Mate Subasic¹;  ¹ University of Liverpool, UK

Discussion

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, under a concern for transborder ethnic communities pretext, has challenged the international normative framework for transborder engagement (Pettai, 2022) and contributed to a uniform European Union policy response (Meissner & Grazziani, 2023; Fiott, 2023). In conjunction, these two factors contribute to the re-evaluation of their transborder ethnic policies across states in the Western Balkans, which claim ethnic attachments and engage in developing co-ethnic ties in their neighbourhood. Scholars have looked at the impact these developments have on (geo)politics of the region and the EU response towards the enlargement process that captured the Western Balkans (Džankić, Kacarska & Keil, 2023; Anghel and Džankić, 2023; Kolarski, 2022). This paper, instead, discusses the effects on kin-state politics and kin-minority mobilisation in the Western Balkans. 

Previous research has identified the EU as a significant factor in alleviating transborder ethnic engagement outside the kin-state normative framework (Udrea, 2017; Waterbury, 2010; Fox & Vermeersch, 2010; Waterbury, 2008; Vachudova, 2005; Harris, 2005). This paper evaluates whether the EU remains the critical factor in determining the outcome of kin-state engagement by examining the response of the Balkan countries in dependence on their ties with the EU. 

Four engagement patterns are identified among states: members of the EU, committed to joining the EU, receiving state-building support from the EU, and opposing EU policies.  

For Croatia and Bulgaria, the emergence of a uniform EU policy approach towards Russia signals the strengthening of EU institutions and actors and, therefore, contributes to their focus on EU institutions in advancing their transborder ethnic policies. For North Macedonia and Montenegro, commitment to join the EU overrides otherwise politically instrumentalised fears of kin-state policies their neighbouring states advance. For Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo, the invasion normatively and indirectly challenges their statehood and, despite the proclaimed support by the EU, generates overall insecurities, especially in the case of BiH, where transborder ethnic communities receive significant support from their kin-states. Despite having to cut ties with Russia, Serbia applies the EU approach to Ukraine to challenge the policy towards Kosovo and engages more vehemently with transborder co-ethnics, demonstrating in that way an ambiguous approach to transborder engagement. 

The Russian invasion and the EU response remain at the forefront of the domestic and foreign policy initiatives in the region, signalling the changing character of the emerging international system and the place of the EU in it. Those who consider the EU a key actor and an unavoidable fact remain committed to a kin-state framework, while others focus more on the challenges to existing rules.