XI ICCEES World Congress

Conflicting expectations for tackling the Russia problem between Russian political exiles, Ukraine and the EU.

Fri25 Jul10:45am(15 mins)
Where:
Room 5
Presenter:

Authors

Jussi Lassila1; Ryhor Nizhnikau11 Finnish Institute of International Affairs, Finland

Discussion

What is the vision of the opponents of the Russian war of aggression to solve the current Russia problem? The question sounds somewhat rhetorical, as it is obvious that there is no single vision. At the same time, political implications and importance of such a vision is significant. In the end, fighting a dictator who sustains a brutal war of aggression while saving Ukraine can only be succeeded by having a sufficiently unified and policy-relevant vision. However, there are deep-seated divisions not only on defining the common strategy, but also on agreeing how the post-Putinist Russia should look like.

In this paper, we map the views of the three levels of anti-Putin actors – Ukraine, the EU, and the Russian opposition in exile – on the solution of the Putin-led Russia problem, based on a selective sample representing each of the three. We look at structural conditions, which shape the current debate and the understanding of both Russia and the Putinist regime, and trace the evolution of the policy visions of the key anti-Putinist actors.

General consensus on Vladimir Putinʼs guilt and responsibility for the war and war crimes is not enough in a situation where Russiaʼs military superiority and Putinʼs intransigence is obvious. This has led to a situation especially on the part of Ukraine, where demands in resisting Russian aggression have expanded to concern Russian society as a whole and the Russian state in a broader historical perspective, where Putin only embodies a general European and global security problem called Russia.

Ukraineʼs contradictory approach to request Russians to act more actively to oppose the war or to help Ukraine militarily while putting emphasis on Russians collective guilt is completely understandable. This emotionally justified demonization of Russia and fantasies about the countryʼs disintegration have partially forced exiled Russian opposition activists to emphasize the anti-war sentiments of millions of Russians repressed by Putinʼs terror, and belief in the possibility of democracy after Putin. This sharp division is further enhanced by the Western contradictory views concerning the means of ending the war and a general lack of vision for Russia after Putin.

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