Vedev Alexey1; Marina Kovaleva2; 1 Presidential Academy of Russian Federation, Russian Federation; 2 Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Russian Federation
Discussion
The presented report contains a scenario forecast for the socio-economic development of Russia, calculated by the authors. External and internal threats, as well as scenario variables of the forecast are presented. The report contains a critical analysis of the latest official forecasts of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, a comparison of the key parameters of the forecasts with the authors' estimates compiled using the original model. The authors highlight some features and shortcomings of the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, point out possible deviations from the forecast values. The discrepancies in the estimates are mainly related to the balance of foreign trade: the authors predict the preservation or even strengthening of barriers to foreign trade, which will not allow increasing imports and maintaining exports at the level forecasted by the Ministry. The Central Bank's forecast notes excessive optimism in assessing inflation at the end of the current year, as well as the conservatism of the forecast regarding the future economic dynamics of the country in 2025-2026.
