Authors

Galina Yemelianova¹;  ¹ SOAS, University of London, UK

Discussion

The paper, which is informed by the presenter's lengthy empirical research into the Caucasus, Turkey and post-Ottoman lands, employs a historical and geopolitical perspective to compare the factors behind the emergence and dynamics of the Eurasian de facto states of Abkhazia, Nagorno-Karabakh and Northern Cyprus (TRNC). It contends that the root causes for the formation of all three were the late nineteenth century geopolitical rivalry between the Russian, Ottoman and British empires for military and commercial control of Asia and for access to the Mediterranean and Black seas, in particular. 

In the early twentieth century, following the collapse of the Russian and Ottoman empires, Soviet Russia/the USSR retained its control over Abkhazia and Nagorno-Karabakh, while the Republic of Turkey gave up its suzerainty over Cyprus in favour of the British Empire. After World War II Turkey's relations with Cyprus became determined by the logic of the Cold War as Turkey made a geopolitical U-turn from its short-lived anti-imperialist rapprochement with Soviet Russia towards its alliance with Russia's historical rival, Great Britain, now superseded by the USA. In the context of Turkey's ensuing NATO membership (1952) and the establishment of the British military bases (1960), Ankara effectively lost its agency over Cyprus.  Thus, the Turkish invasion of Northern Cyprus in 1974 and the establishment there of the de facto state, the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), could be regarded as the beginning of Ankara's re-evaluation of Turkey's Ottoman past and its relations with the West and reassertion of its partial agency over Cyprus, albeit alongside its continuing hostility towards the Soviet Union.

By comparison, the emergence of the de facto states of Abkhazia and Nagorno-Karabakh, which took place over a decade later, occurred in post-Cold War conditions and the disintegration of the USSR, and was due to the partial return in the region of Russia's historical rivals, now embodied by the EU and the USA which sought either direct or proxy patronage over the new polities. 

From the 2000s, the sustainability of the de facto states of Abkhazia and Nagorno-Karabakh became defined by the advancing and mutually congruent political Eurasianism of Russia and Turkey, which led to the re-establishment of Russia’s control over Abkhazia and Nagorno-Karabakh's re-integration into Azerbaijan. Meanwhile, the future of the TRNC, as well as of entire Cyprus, remains in limbo due to the increasingly conflicting geopolitical vectors of the EU and Turkey (Türkiye). Among the variables which might determine the fate of the TRNC are Turkey’s positioning in the emerging multi-polar world and its relations with Russia and the West, as well as the outcome of the wars in Ukraine, Gaza and Lebanon.