Authors

Kirill Melnikov¹;  ¹ European University Institute, Italy

Discussion

What career incentives do key political appointees face under autocratic rule, who and why gets promoted and demoted? The existing research shows that some autocratic systems, ranging from Singapore to China, have managed to link career advancement with socio-economic performance, thereby creating benign and stable career incentives for their elites. However, the current body of knowledge is generally confined to party regimes, which may have their own logic distinct from other forms of autocratic rule, including the most common type - personalist autocracies. The default view on elite mobility in personalist systems suggests a lack of consistent rules, with the fates of individual elite members dependent solely on the ruler's momentary favor. Due to the lack of empirical research, this thesis remains unchallenged yet may be problematic, given the numerous factors personalistic leaders must consider to maintain their grip on power. It is natural to expect that leaders would assess their subordinates based on the latter's contributions towards this goal. This project puts this question under empirical test by closely examining the world's largest personalist autocracy - Russia - and the pool of its subnational leaders - governors. The governors play an essential role in many policy areas in Russia, yet their careers have been entirely in the hands of the federal center for the last twenty years. What logic lies behind the decisions of Russia's central authorities on the promotion and dismissal of governors? How do Weberian-style factors such as competence and in-office performance combine with informal considerations such as patronage connections, place in informal elite networks, vote delivery, and the ability to prevent media scandals and protest mobilization? What is the relative explanatory power of written and unwritten rules vis-à-vis each other? The project addresses these questions by fusing cutting-edge methods such as network analysis, quantitative text analysis, and survival analysis.