Authors

Discussion

Russia’s demographic history over the past century has been marked by a series of catastrophic events, ranging from the devastating impacts of the First and Second World Wars, the Civil War, famine, Stalin's mass repressions, and the crises triggered by the collapse of the Soviet Union. These events have left a deep and lasting imprint, which continues to affect the country today. This study thoroughly examines the long-term demographic changes and identifies the key factors contributing to the current crisis. Based on data from Rosstat, the United Nations, and the author’s own calculations, the work presents a comprehensive analysis of Russia’s demographic dynamics in the context of the ongoing geopolitical confrontation.

The research utilises time series analysis, cohort analysis, and demographic forecasting to assess how historical demographic changes influence key processes, such as fertility, mortality, and migration. Particular attention is given to the accelerating decline in the working-age population, shifts in the age structure, and the growing demographic burden. The war with Ukraine and international isolation have intensified the crisis: mortality rates are rising, fertility is declining, emigration is increasing, and the inflow of migrants is decreasing.

Medium- and long-term forecasts appear alarming. Various scenarios are considered—from relatively mild to catastrophic. In the worst-case scenarios, Russia’s population could shrink by two-thirds by 2100. These changes will not only affect the population size but also its structure: the population will age, and the share of working-age residents will decrease sharply, posing a significant challenge to Russia’s socio-economic development in the coming decades.

The findings of this study show that Russia’s demographic crisis has deep historical roots, but it is now being exacerbated by contemporary political and social factors, creating bleak prospects for the country’s future.