Discussion
Masaaki Kuboniwa
Title: The Impact of Russo-Ukraine War on Growth and Trade Network of Russia and Europe
I further develop analyses of the impact of Russo-Ukraine War on growth and trade network of Russia and Europe, including Germany. I employ disaggregated data on GDP, input-output, industrial production, and foreign trade, compiled by Rosstat, OECD, ADB (Asian Development Bank) and individual country-statistics-office. First, I explore the impact of the military goods industry on Russia’s economic growth, using disaggregated data on GDP (2010-2023), input-output (2011-2023) and industrial production (2010-2024). Positive or negative effects of the military industry on Russia’s growth will be demonstrated in econometrics manner (“military Keynesian” effects). Second, I attempt to capture changes in trade network of Russia which have been brought about by sanctions against the War. I employ Inter-country input-output (ICIO) data or multi-regional input-output (MRIO) data compiled by the OECD (1995-2020) and ADB (2010-2023). The impact of decoupling Russia-EU trade nexus on growth of Russia and the EU is presented. It is shown that in the short-run the losses of the EU might be greater than those of Russia. In the long-run, however, Russia’s damage would be rather great.
