Authors

Vítězslav Sommer¹;  ¹ Institute of Contemporary History, the Czech Academy of Sciences, Czechia

Discussion

This paper explores the forms that prediction can take in times of great political and economic upheaval. The core of the presentation will be a case study of the Czechoslovak footwear industry in the 1980s and 1990s. The crisis of the centrally planned economy and the transition to capitalism after 1989 posed a major challenge to the managers of the largest Czechoslovak footwear company (Svit Group). The gradual disintegration of the long-established socialist economic system and the emergence of a market economy meant that managers were exposed to new and unpredictable economic phenomena. At the same time, they had to navigate an entirely new political environment, whether it was the revolutionary politics of 1989 and 1990 or the liberal democracy of the 1990s. This paper will analyze how managers responsible for the operation of a large industrial company tried to predict the prospects of the company and the industry as a whole at a time when the economic and political system in Central Eastern Europe was undergoing fundamental changes, and when the footwear industry was undergoing major global transformation (deindustrialisation in the West, the rise of manufacturers in Asia).