Authors

Mykola Kapitonenko¹;  ¹ Kyiv National Taras Shevchenko University, Ukraine

Discussion

As the Russian-Ukrainian war has turned into a protracted conflict, the issues linked to elaborating long-term strategies for all parties involved are becoming increasingly pressing. One of them is about shaping a vision and defining criteria for victory, which is set to become a cornerstone for war planning, future negotiations and post-conflict settlement. I’ll be comparing various approaches to defining victory in a modern war; outline general perspectives of de-escalation and ceasefire in the Russian-Ukrainian war; and address the problem of security guarantees for Ukraine. Defining victory in a modern war is important, since it is a key to ordering preferences and elaborating a position in subsequent negotiations or a strategy for further fight. Along with the classical understanding of victory as a better state of peace, it can be also seen as restoration of the status quo; improving one’s position in comparison to what it was before the war; or just not letting an opponent win. Victory can also be seen as getting more powerful. Understanding Ukraine’s victory must incorporate high probability of a prolonged standoff. Then the price of victory may go much higher. Long-lasting modern wars are difficult to end. There is a mix of strategic calculations and miscalculations of the parties, political pressures, international factors and political costs making it problematic to find a sustainable and stable solution. Chances to end a war are shaped by existing or perceived balance of power, political framework for decision-making, costs of war, and a principal possibility of a negotiated settlement – the latter two elements are often referred to as conflict’s ripeness. So far the Russian-Ukrainian war is in military equilibrium. Political constraints are pushing leadership of both countries away from any concessions. Costs of war are rising, but they are asymmetric for the two parties. Both countries seem to tolerate the costs of war as long as Ukraine is receiving massive foreign support, and Russia is escaping a major economic crisis. A negotiated settlement stays out of reach. The issue of post-war security commitments to Ukraine is an element of both conflict managing efforts and understanding of victory. But the US is facing a wide broad of challenges globally and may tend to more carefully manage its security commitments. Security guarantees for Ukraine can be coined in a way different from NATO membership Ukraine aspires to. At the minimal level a victory for Ukraine would mean denying Russia’s attempts to destroy its statehood or put the nation under its control. A better victory would also include restoration of pre-war status quo and, in particular, regaining territories occupied by Russia. That is what President Zelenskyy’s Peace Formula stands closest to. Another version of a better victory would not only be about restoration of status quo, but also shift the balance of power versus Russia in Ukraine’s favor.