Authors

Marat Myrzakhmet¹; Kabira Begimbay²;  ¹ Almaty Management University, ;  ² Kazakh Head Architectural and Construction Academy, Kazakhstan

Discussion

Kazakhstan, situated at the heart of Eurasia, is uniquely positioned to play a pivotal role in the global economic landscape. Given the significant contribution of its foreign economic relations to national income, understanding the influences on its economic well-being is paramount. This research undertakes a comprehensive econometric analysis to model the foreign economic relations of Kazakhstan and assess the impact of external shocks, specifically the global pandemic and economic sanctions.

Methodologically, this study employed a time-series approach utilizing Vector Autoregression (VAR) models and Granger causality tests to analyze the temporal relationships and influence of global events on Kazakhstan's key economic indicators. Data was sourced from the World Bank, International Monetary Fund, and national repositories, spanning over three decades (1990-2020).

Key findings suggest that Kazakhstan's economy has exhibited resilience and adaptability in the face of external shocks. Despite initial disruptions due to the pandemic, most notably in the sectors of tourism, aviation, and services, there was a marked rebound in the second half of 2020. This was attributed to a diversified export portfolio, predominantly comprising of oil, minerals, and grain, and its strategic involvement in the Belt and Road Initiative.

Economic sanctions, primarily targeting Russia – a major trade partner, indirectly affected Kazakhstan through supply chain disruptions and reduced trade volumes. While not the direct recipient of sanctions, Kazakhstan's interlinked trade relations rendered it susceptible to collateral economic disturbances. The diversification of its foreign economic partnerships, notably with China and the European Union, somewhat mitigated the ramifications of these sanctions.

Furthermore, the study reveals that external shocks, albeit significant, were not the sole determinants of Kazakhstan's economic performance. Domestic policies, reforms, and infrastructural investments, particularly in transport and logistics, played a crucial role in navigating through economic turbulences. The establishment of the Astana International Financial Centre, aiming to become a financial hub for Central Asia, is a testament to Kazakhstan's proactive measures.

In conclusion, while Kazakhstan's foreign economic relations are influenced by global events such as pandemics and sanctions, its strategic geopolitical position, diversified partnerships, and domestic policies ensure a degree of resilience and robustness in its economic performance. Future research might delve deeper into sectoral impacts, and how regional cooperation within Central Asia could further insulate Kazakhstan from global volatilities.