Authors

Eduard Abrahamyan¹;  ¹ University College London, UK

Discussion

This study investigates Russia's role in the 2020 outbreak of war between the small states Armenia and Azerbaijan over the contested region of Nagorno-Karabakh, examining the situation from a theoretical perspective. During the last decade, Russia emerged as a system-shaping power, asserting the right to impose order in the Caucasus as its perceived orbit of influence and domination. Amid the emerging Russia-West polar standoff, Moscow increasingly positioned itself as a critical orbiter of the political and security affairs in the Caucasus domain. Exploring the Kremlin’s role in Armenia and Azerbaijan’s decision-making, this paper addresses the question as to why Armenia’s strategic defeat in the war, as Russia’s sole regional politico-military ally, became permissible from the perspective of the Kremlin’s interests. The interplay between the two variables that made Azerbaijan's military campaign against Armenia possible after decades of a ceasefire regime is examined. First, there is the evolution of Russia's regional interests and its ambitions to form an order with distinct norms and values, setting it in opposition to the liberal rules-based order championed by the collective West. Second, there is the evolution of the characteristics of the asymmetric relationships that specific small states have developed with Russia. The correlation of these two evolutionary processes exposes the causes of the war. To analyse these intricate dynamics, this paper adopts the Constellation theory (Mouritzen & Wivel 2005) reinforcing it with the Adaptation concept (Rosenau 1981). The notion of "constellation" is understood in this study as a small state’s basic set of relationships to the strong [sides] in its salient environment. This theoretical approach emphasizes not only the explanatory power of the asymmetric relations and the positions of small states vis-à-vis power poles but also underscores the dynamic nature of constellations within the claimed spheres of their polar dominance. Contrary to the static model proposed by prevailing theory, this research illustrates that the dynamics in international politics, especially involving small states, are fluid and ever-evolving. This study challenges the materialistic explanation of polarity, contending that for non-Western pole the significance of ideological and regime (in)compatibility might overshadow formal commitments in its interactions with smaller actors. This concept is termed here as the Adaptive Constellation. Through a comprehensive examination of Russia's actions in the region and its evolving relationships with Armenia and Azerbaijan, this study contributes to a deeper understanding of the geopolitical complexities that led to the 2020 Karabakh war. It highlights the importance of considering adaptive constellations in international politics to grasp the intricate and dynamic interactions between dominant powers and smaller states in complex regions like the Caucasus.