Authors

Gulshan Pashayeva¹;  ¹ Center of Analysis of International Relations, Azerbaidjan

Discussion

Since the end of the Second Karabakh War, Azerbaijani leadership has repeatedly stated that Azerbaijan is ready to sign a peace treaty with Armenia. In March 2022 the Azerbaijani government put forward a proposal with 5 basic principles for the establishment of relations. However, the position of the current Armenian authorities remains ambivalent; they declare their agenda of opening “an era of peaceful development”, but at the same time slow down the normalization process fearing a negative reaction from the Armenian society towards signing a peace treaty. In fact, the Armenian-Azerbaijani normalization process has been initiated since 2021 through separate Russian and EU intermediaries. 2 meetings were held in 2021 through Russian facilitation and 5 meetings were organized under the auspices of the European Council President, Charles Michel in 2021 and 2022. Latest meeting between the sides took place in the fringes of the European Political Community Summit in Prague on 6 October 2022 with the facilitation of Charles Michel and French President Emmanuel Macron. However, in order to reach a peace treaty, it is paramount that Yerevan abandons territorial claims against Azerbaijan and accepts Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity, including the recognition of Azerbaijani sovereignty over Karabakh. Whether or not it will be achievable depends on geopolitics and political will of the Armenian leadership and society.