Authors

Kristiina Silvan¹;  ¹ Finnish Institute of International Affairs, Finland

Discussion

Over the 2000s and 2010s, Russian foreign policy analysts came to echo the Kremlin’s discourse about Russia as a great power and the post-Soviet space as its legitimate sphere of influence. This paper studies the representations of Central Asian states and populations in Russian foreign policy discourse from a critical geopolitical perspective, asking if Russia’s war in Ukraine has prompted a shift in the expert narratives of Central Asia. Drawing from thematic analysis of written and spoken texts of prominent foreign policy analysts, the paper argues that while Central Asian states are still systematically narrated as Russia’s important yet subordinate partners, analysts point to the war’s empowering effect to the region’s elites. Meanwhile, there is also continuity: since the realist view of the international order dominates Russian expert discourse, Central Asian states are narrated as weak entities whose de facto sovereignty depends on the goodwill of great powers. In addition, Central Asia is portrayed as a source of instability requiring Russia’s security assistance. According to the experts, Russia has a mission to act as the “benign hegemon” in the region – presumably with Central Asian governments’ and populations’ consent. Moreover, pro-regime analysts point to the recurring yet for now unsuccessful attempts of the “collective West” and local “nationalists”  to pull Central Asia out of Russia’s orbit, especially since February 24, 2022.