Authors

Kristian Nielsen¹; Dzenita Siljak¹;  ¹ International University of Sarajevo, Bosnia-Herzegovina

Discussion

The EU’s tradtional approach to enlargement has relied on the Copenhagen Criteria and acquis compliance to measure a candidate’s suitability for membership. However, these say little about the candidate’s actual readiness to assume both the burdens and privileges of membership. Instead, they essentially assume that competitiveness and convergence will automatically follow from deeper integration.

This paper challenges that assumption. Using a different methodology, based on the concept of ‘Integration Maturity’, it suggests that a series of economic indicators, as well as the candidate’s economic performance over time, will better reflect a candidate’s preparedness to benefit from deeper integration, or, alternatively, suggest that more time should be spent achieving sufficient competitiveness and convergence.

To illustrate this point, we examine the cases of Slovenia and Croatia, who joined the EU in 2004 and 2013, respectively. Both were part of Yugoslavia, and thus had similar starting points for their economic transitions in the 1990s. Yet, while the former has prospered since accession, the latter is one of the worst performing members. This paper suggests that this divergence was entirely predictable, based on the two countries’ economic performance on several indicators during the years leading to accession. This finding has implications for the way future accessions should be assessed.