Authors

Discussion

Among the regions of Russia, many ethnic republics are distinguished by a higher level of electoral mobilization and political loyalty. However, in some of them recently, a decrease in electoral support at the level of official statistics for incumbents from the titular ethnic groups has been recorded. Why is there stability in voters’ political behavior in a number of ethnic republics, while others see volatility? Why do a number of ethnic republics consistently reproduce an electoral supermajority for incumbents, while others do not differ in this indicator from most Russian regions? To answer these questions, the study uses both quantitative data from official statistics and original qualitative data collected by focus groups in five Russian republics: Bashkortostan, Tatarstan, Komi, Chuvashia and Yakutia. The analysis of the collected data made it possible to identify the main factors that determine the variation in titular ethnic groups’ electoral behavior after the 2017 language reform. In particular, it is shown that the structure of regional elites is a key factor in electoral volatility. The transformation from a monolithic to fragmented structure leads to an increase in the activity of independent national organizations, which undermine the head of the region’s monopoly on framing national problems and controlling the electorate.