Authors
Elena Soboleva1; Svetlana Krivokhizh1; 1 HSE University, Russian Federation Discussion
Since the collapse of the USSR, China has gradually increased its presence in Central Asia. In this paper, we study the evolution of China’s Central Asia policy with a focus on its approach to Russia, another power in this shared neighbourhood. At first, Beijing took a cautious and accommodating stance, for example, by launching SCO together with Moscow in 2001 and avoiding military cooperation outside of the SCO framework. Moreover, in contrast to the EU in Russia’s other shared neighbourhood, Beijing has been reluctant to promote the adoption of its development model and value system in the region and overall shares with Russia antipathy towards democracy promotion. However, recently this cozy condominium has been questioned by new features of China’s Central Asia policy. Its current efforts often exclude Russia, rely on bilateral formats and include military cooperation, the sphere Moscow finds particularly important. These changes should be seen as a new normal: without stating it openly, China is no longer willing to put up with some of the constraints created by Russia and seems to violate informal arrangements on the division of spheres of influence. To some extent this new approach reflects China’s rise and expanding foreign policy interests, while another contributing factor is the inability of Russia to be a strong regional leader in Central Asia and to match China’s capabilities. 
