Authors

K S Rock¹; M J Keeling¹;  ¹ University of Warwick

Discussion

Human African trypanosomiasis (HAT, sleeping sickness) is a virulent vector-borne disease that has experienced a global decline in cases in recent years, but pockets of infection still persist, particularly within the Democratic of Congo (DRC), which had over 80% of all cases in 2014. In order to achieve the 2020 WHO goal of elimination as a public health problem, it is important to quantitatively estimate how intervention strategies could impact HAT in these regions.
Using spatial mathematical modelling, the past impact of medical-only interventions in two previously high-burden provinces was assessed. Model predictions of intervention strategies, including different screening coverages and new vector control, were simulated.
The results indicate that there are many areas within the provinces which may require no additional interventions to locally achieve the 2020 elimination target, particularly in former Equateur province which is largely on track. However, some crucial areas are identified as potentially missing this target without an improved strategy. In regions with persistent disease, vector control was found to be a promising method to reduce transmission quickly.